More Robots Than Humans by 2040, Says Elon Musk

• Elon Musk made several statements at the Future Investment Initiative event
• He said that AI will continue to evolve and by 2040 there will be more robots than humans
• At the same time, he was criticized by some experts like Gary Marcus

Tesla CEO Elon Musk spoke at the Future Investment Initiative event in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, making some optimistic statements regarding the development of robotics and AI.

However, he met with some criticism from experts like author and AI scientist Gary Marcus, who mainly focused on economic and security concerns.

More about Elon Musk’s Statements and Doubts About Them

So, Elon Musk, who himself is an active contributor to the development of AI and robotics, has extremely optimistic estimates of the future development of the industry.

“I think by 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. Every country will have an AI or multiple AIs, and there will be a lot of robots, way more robots than people.”

It is hard to say how clear his assessment is, because, on the one hand, he speaks from inside the industry, on the other hand, he has reasons to fuel interest in his companies’ products in this way, expecting higher stock prices and investment.

He has made similar statements before, namely at the 2024 All-In Summit hosted by the All-In Podcast, in September:

“If you’ve got humanoid robots-when there’s no real limit on the number of humanoid robots-and they can operate very intelligently, then there’s no actual limit to the economy in it.”

Elon Mask has also raised the possibility that robots will create a ‘crisis of meaning,’ entering an even riskier space for him, one in which he cannot boast of accomplishments, unlike academic philosophers who devote their entire careers to raising such fundamental questions.

All of this rightly raises questions from industry experts, such as author and AI scientist Gary Marcus.

“Elon has a track record of overoptimistic predictions about AI, and this one is no different. There are only about 1.5 billion cars on the road; many people can’t afford one or don’t see the need. The same will be true for humanoid robots, and we aren’t going to see six humanoid robots for every car anytime soon.”

Since many things are better learned by comparison, at least if it’s correct, he added an example:

“Roomba, the best-selling consumer robot of all time, sells for a few hundred dollars and has sold around 50 million units. It’s just fantasy to imagine selling 200 times as many humanoid robots in the nearish term when nobody knows how to build a single safe, reliable, generally useful humanoid right now, at any price.”

Conclusion

To throw out Elon Mask’s opinion completely would be unwise because it seems that not so long ago everyone was sure that building rockets, launching satellites and other space missions were possible only on behalf of the state.

Elon Mask proved that this is not only possible for a private company, but also can be much more effective, so there is a possibility that his views on robotics and AI will meet the same fate.

However, criticism, if it is constructive and deserved, is always not in favor of even the best intentions and ambitious plans, and helps to look at things more soberly and practically.