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Bitcoin ETF launch day could be more than just a “sell the news” event for BTC price, says Peter Schiff.
Bitcoin (BTC) will “most likely” see a serious price drawdown before a key date for institutional investors dawns, said gold bug Peter Schiff.
In recent X activity, the longtime Bitcoin skeptic sounded the alarm over recent BTC price gains.
Schiff bets on a BTC price “crash” before ETF launches
Bitcoin is a favorite topic of criticism for Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at asset management firm Euro Pacific Asset Management.
Throughout the years, he has repeatedly insisted that, unlike gold, Bitcoin’s value is destined to return to zero and that no one in fact wishes to hold it except in order to sell higher later on.
Now, with BTC/USD circling 18-month highs, he has turned his attention to what others say will be a watershed moment for cryptocurrency — the launch of the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF).
An approval is thought to be due in early 2024, while rumors that a green light could come in November are thought to have fueled last week’s ascent past $37,000.
While some believe that the announcement will be a “sell the news” event, where investors reduce exposure once certainty over the ETF hits, for Schiff, a BTC price comedown may not even wait for that.
In an X survey on Nov. 9, he offered two scenarios for a Bitcoin “crash” — before and after the ETF launch. Alternatively, respondents could choose “Buy and HODL till the moon,” which ultimately became the most popular choice with 68% of the nearly 25,000 votes.
Despite this, however, Schiff stood his ground.
“Based on the results my guess is that Bitcoin crashes before the ETF launch,” he responded.
“That why the people who bought the rumor won’t actually profit if they wait for the fact to sell.”
When will #Bitcoin crash?
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) November 9, 2023
AllianceBernstein: Bitcoin ETF “getting slowly priced in”
As Cointelegraph reported, the mood in the institutional sphere is lightening as the ETF debate looks increasingly set to end in Bitcoin’s favor.
Related: Bitcoin ‘Terminal Price’ hints next BTC all-time high is at least $110K
Among the latest optimistic BTC price forecasts is that of AllianceBernstein, which last week predicted a peak of $150,000 next cycle.
“We believe early flows could be slower and the build up could be more gradual, and post-halving is when ETF flows momentum could build, leading to a cycle peak in 2025 and not 2024,” analysts wrote in a note quoted by MarketWatch and others.
“The current BTC break-out is just simply ETF approval news getting slowly priced in and then the market monitors the initial outflows and likely gets disappointed in the short run.”
An accompanying chart showed BTC’s past and future price behavior delineated by halving cycles.
BTC/USD cycle phases (screenshot). Source: AllianceBernstein/MarketWatch
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