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Bitcoin and several major altcoins are trading inside a range, indicating that a strong catalyst is needed to start the next trending move.
Bitcoin broke below the support of its narrow range on July 24, but the bears have not been able to capitalize on it and start a sharp downward move. This is a positive sign, as it shows a lack of aggressive selling at lower levels. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price back above $31,000 to trap the aggressive bears.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility is likely to pick up following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on July 26 and the subsequent commentary by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Rather than the knee-jerk reaction to the event, it will be of interest to note where Bitcoin’s price settles down.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
When the price enters and remains inside a range for an extended period, the breakout from it usually ends up with a strong trending move. It is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. Hence, it is best to wait for the price to escape the range before initiating large bets.
Traders need to be careful because sometimes the first breakout tends to be a fake move. What are the important levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and the altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price analysis
The bulls have protected the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $29,134 for the past two days, but they have failed to start a strong rebound. This indicates that the bears are keeping up the pressure.
The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $29,840 and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the 50-day SMA gives way, the BTC/USDT pair may tumble to $27,500 and then to $26,000.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to quickly kick the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the pair may rise to the overhead resistance zone between $31,000 and $32,400. This zone may act as a major barrier, but if bulls overcome it, the pair may resume its uptrend.
Ether price analysis
Buyers are trying to guard the 50-day SMA ($1,853) in Ether (ETH), but they are struggling to achieve a strong rebound off it. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the 50-day SMA support cracks, the ETH/USDT pair may start a downward move to $1,700 and subsequently to $1,626. Such a move will indicate that the pair may remain stuck inside the large range between $1,626 and $2,000 for a while longer.
The first sign of strength will be a break above the 20-day EMA ($1,883). That may clear the path for a possible rally to $2,000. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle to indicate the start of a new up move.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.67) on July 25, but the bulls could not build upon this strength. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to sink the price below the 20-day EMA and seize control. If they can pull it off, the XRP/USDT pair may plummet to the breakout level of $0.56. Such a deep fall may delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.
Contrarily, if the price bounces off the 20-day EMA and rises above $0.75, it will suggest that bulls are buying the dips. The pair could then swing between the 20-day EMA and $0.86 for a few days.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) is trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating uncertainty among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls are likely to buy the dips to the support line. If the price rises from this level and breaks above the moving averages, it will suggest that the BNB/USDT pair may continue its stay inside the triangle.
On the contrary, if the price dips below the triangle, it will suggest that the bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair could then drop to the critical support at $220. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it may start the next leg of the downtrend.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) skidded below the 20-day EMA ($0.30) on July 24 and reached the strong support at $0.30. The bulls are defending this level but have failed to achieve a strong bounce off it.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears will try to strengthen their position further by yanking the price below the uptrend line. If they succeed in doing that, the ADA/USDT pair could start a deeper pullback to $0.27 and then to $0.26.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from $0.30 or the uptrend line, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $0.32. That could start a recovery to $0.34, where the bears may again pose a strong challenge.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) slipped below the 20-day EMA ($23.80) on July 24 and reached close to the horizontal support at $22.30 on July 25.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls purchased the dip and pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA on July 26. This suggests that the SOL/USDT pair may oscillate between $22.30 and $27.12 for a few days. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory also point to a possible consolidation in the near term.
The next trending move is likely to begin after the bulls thrust the price above $27.12 or the bears sink the pair below $22.30.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from $0.07 on July 23, indicating that the bulls have flipped the level into support.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The up move picked up momentum on July 25 and reached the first target objective near $0.08. This level may attract sellers, but if the bulls do not give up much ground, the DOGE/USDT pair may soar to $0.10 and then to $0.11.
If bears want to prevent the up move, they will have to quickly pull the price back below the breakout level of $0.07. Such a move will suggest that the recent breakout may have been a bull trap.
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Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) plunged and closed below the uptrend line on July 25. The bulls are attempting to arrest the pullback at the 50-day SMA ($0.69).
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price breaks and closes above the 20-day EMA ($0.73), it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. The MATIC/USDT pair may then rise to $0.80. This level may again act as a stiff hurdle, but if bulls clear it, the pair could reach $0.90.
Instead, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are selling on relief rallies. That will increase the possibility of a break below the 50-day SMA. The pair may then start a deeper correction toward $0.60.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($92) on July 24 and plunged below the 50-day SMA ($90). The bulls are trying to push the price back above the 50-day SMA, but the bears have held their ground.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the bears are in charge. If the price turns down and breaks below $87, the LTC/USDT pair may resume its descent toward $81. This level may attract buyers.
On the upside, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to signal a comeback. The pair may first rise to $96 and thereafter attempt a rally to the overhead resistance of $106.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) has been range-bound between the 50-day SMA ($5.04) and the overhead resistance of $5.64 for the past few days.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
After failing to sustain above the resistance of the range on July 21, the DOT/USDT pair slipped back to the support on July 24. The bulls successfully held the 50-day SMA but are struggling to propel the price above the 20-day EMA ($5.25).
If the price turns down from the current level, the likelihood of a break below the 50-day SMA increases. That could sink the pair to $4.74 and next to $4.65. Alternatively, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair may extend its consolidation for a few more days.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Bitcoin Insider. Every investment and trading move involves risk - this is especially true for cryptocurrencies given their volatility. We strongly advise our readers to conduct their own research when making a decision.