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Bitcoin is tipped to see classic volatility in BTC price around the CPI release, while liquidity remains tightly wrapped around spot.
Bitcoin (BTC) eased higher into July 12 with the key macroeconomic event of the week just hours away.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
CPI set to hit lowest since March 2021
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price momentum as it slowly inched closer to $31,000.
The largest cryptocurrency showed little volatility through the start of the week, with local range highs and lows still clearly defined.
#FireCharts shows #Bitcoin ask liquidity moving closer to the active trading zone, while bid support strengthens.
Expecting to see liquidity thinned out in the heart of the active trading range between now and Wed morning to clear the way for volatility around the #CPI report.… pic.twitter.com/T4VoXd1CaD— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 11, 2023
With liquidity tight around spot price, analysts hoped for a reshuffle upon the release of the June print of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Roughly expected at around 3.2% — the lowest score since March 2021 — CPI should show U.S. inflation continuing to slow down.
“The Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan + Truflation all anticipating a similar number,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro noted in part of the day’s analysis.
U.S. inflation chart. Source: Tedtalksmacro/Twitter
Traders acknowledged that flash volatility could prove deceptive, as Bitcoin tends to decide on trajectory somewhat after the data release.
“There’s a good chance we see the usual ‘Darth Maul’ candle where both low timeframe highs & lows are taken out shortly after CPI,” Daan Crypto Trades explained.
“From there on out the real direction for the day is often chosen which could then target the 31.1K or 30.2K level imo.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter
“The previous 4 CPI data releases have all followed a very similar pattern for Bitcoin,” trading suite DecenTrader added on the day.
“Volatility both ways to liquidate everyone, then price reverts back to where it was immediately prior to CPI release.“
Bitcoin “looking good” for copycat bull run move
On longer timeframes, popular trader Moustache considered the chances of a repeat performance of classic bull runs.
Related: CPI meets low BTC supply — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The BTC/USD monthly chart, he noted this week, is in the process of breaking out above its 20-period simple moving average (SMA).
“Every time BTC made a monthly close ABOVE the SMA 20 line, it was the ultimate confirmation of a bull run. For the following 2 years it never again went below this line (except covid crash),” he commented, adding that the current situation was “looking good.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Moustache/Twitter
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